Saying that OpenAI could collapse while ChatGPT has become a global reflex sounds absurd. And yet, the scenario is not far-fetched.
According to several leaks and financial reconstructions circulated by analysts, OpenAI is facing a loss trajectory rarely seen in the software industry:
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2025: approximately $8 billion in losses
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2026: roughly $14 billion in losses
These figures have not been officially confirmed, but they align with a reality that is often misunderstood: ChatGPT is not a traditional SaaS product. Every single query has a real, measurable cost.
Why ChatGPT’s Success Makes the Problem Worse
The more ChatGPT is used, the more it costs to operate.
This is the opposite of the classic software model.
The main cost drivers are well known:
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Massive GPU compute, largely based on Nvidia H100-class infrastructure
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Real-time inference, running 24/7
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Redundancy, security, compliance, and low-latency requirements
At scale, this represents hundreds of millions of dollars per month just to keep the models running.
The core issue is this: profitability was massively overestimated, especially around the $20 subscription tier. Even with millions of subscribers, the marginal revenue per user often remains lower than the actual cost generated by heavy usage.
“Game Over” Without a Historic Fundraising Round?
At its current trajectory, OpenAI cannot simply “optimize a bit” to return to profitability.
There are only three realistic levers:
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A new, massive fundraising round
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A radical drop in compute costs (unlikely in the short term)
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Much more aggressive monetization
The first option depends heavily on Microsoft, OpenAI’s strategic partner and primary financial backer. As long as Microsoft continues its support, an immediate collapse is unlikely. But that support is neither unlimited nor unconditional.
Advertising Is Not a Side Note
The quietly announced introduction of advertising formats inside ChatGPT is a clear signal.
Not an experiment. A necessity.
The logic is straightforward:
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ChatGPT captures massive daily attention
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Usage is intentional, contextual, and rich in signal
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The advertising potential may exceed that of traditional search engines
If OpenAI manages to integrate ads without damaging the user experience, the economic equation changes entirely. If advertising becomes intrusive or poorly targeted, however, the reputational risk is significant.
Can a Company Die Despite a Universally Adopted Product?
Yes. History offers plenty of examples.
Explosive adoption does not guarantee financial viability. In OpenAI’s case, the problem is neither demand nor technology, but a brutal mismatch between perceived value and real operating costs.
That is the paradox:
ChatGPT is too useful, too heavily used, too central to be cheap.
OpenAI’s survival does not hinge on model quality, but on its ability to turn a technological breakthrough into a sustainable economic engine.
The real question is not “Will ChatGPT go bankrupt?”
The real question is: how much will users ultimately accept to pay, directly or indirectly, to keep using it?
